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Roundup 4-1-2016

April 1, 2016

Contents

Economy/Economic Development/Transportation/List of the Week – More People

Transportation – More Smoke from FDOT, et al.

Economy – More Money, A Least a Little

— More or Less Than it Seems

Economic Development – More Millennial Studies

Downtown – More Straz

Downtown – More AER

Downtown/Hyde Park – More Change at Altis Grand

Downtown/Channel District – More Land for the Lighting Owner

Port – More Comings and Goings

Transportation – More PTC Dancing

Public Art/Built Environment – More Murals

____________________________________________________________________

Economy/Economic Development/Transportation/List of the Week – More People

The Census Bureau released its latest batch of stats recently.

Hillsborough County added 30,725 people in the year ended July 1, pushing the county’s population to nearly 1.35 million people.

The growth spurt of 2.33 percent for the year was second only to Orange County’s among the state’s population centers. Home to tourist meccas Disney World and Universal Studios, Orange County added 31,631 people for a growth rate of 2.51 percent.

The new figures, released by the U.S. Census Bureau, showed Hillsborough’s population surge was driven by a net in-migration of 23,205 people, of which 14,687 came from other U.S. states and territories.

Another 8,518 people came to Florida from other countries.

The rest of the population growth was from an increase in births over deaths of 6,423.

The Tampa Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes St. Petersburg and Clearwater, grew by 57,412 people, 13th in the nation behind metropolitan areas including Houston and Dallas at No. 1 and No. 2 and Orlando at No. 10.

(Take note that this is for Metropolitan Statistical Area.  Orlando lobbied and managed to get listed also as the main part of a Combined Statistical Area adding a few hundred thousand people and making it technically bigger than the Tampa Bay area.  Orlando understands how to market.)  At least we are among the usual suspects:

From the Census Bureau

Population growth is generally good. We are not going to get into what all these people are doing, how much they are making, etc. (are they low wage workers looking for a cheaper life or are they bringing higher paying jobs)  We are not going to get into all their motivations, and we are not going to get into rates of growth.  We will simply point out that the County Commission, and other local government officials, are woefully behind in addressing the present needs of the area, let alone the needs of all these other people who may or may not move here.  They may celebrate the increase in people but, when the dust settles and they are no longer in office, all the taxpayers will be paying for their inability to plan ahead and have the political will to solve the problems that are obviously going to be made worse.  We need planning and transportation changes now.

Transportation – More Smoke from FDOT, et al.

The Tribune had a piece on the Veterans Expressway expansion which touched on a number of relevant issues.

Commuter traffic on the Veterans Expressway at rush hour is comparable to that on many major roadways in this area — bumper-to-bumper, stop-and-go, exasperating.

Florida’s Turnpike officials say that will change with the expressway widening from four to eight lanes and the addition of express toll lanes. The road widening will be completed in phases, with the first segment — Memorial Highway to Gunn Highway — opening by late summer. The express toll lanes are scheduled for completion in the spring of 2018.

The Veterans Expressway, which requires a toll, will be the first stretch of pavement in the region to get express toll lanes. Commuters can use the express lanes for an additional charge. State transportation chiefs tout the lanes as a mechanism for congestion relief. Critics call them an outdated solution that should be replaced with more robust regional transit.

Never mind that express toll lanes are not congestion relief (see below).  Never mind that the limited access points will cause all sorts of changed traffic patterns that no one can anticipate.

It really seems that “express lanes” are an excuse to not have to really do something about congestion by saying that, if you don’t like the complete lack of services that normal people are provided, you can pay a whole lot more and maybe (because it is maybe) not have as much congestion if you are not one of the people the state intentionally prices out of the market for congestion relief.  How much extra will the state charge?

Commuters pay $1.85 one way to drive the 11-mile stretch, Deason said. The express toll lanes will cost an additional 50 cents initially, but the price will increase as the express lanes become congested. There will be no cap on the express lane charge.

Commuters can get on and off the express toll lanes at three points: Memorial Highway, Linebaugh and at Dale Mabry.

“We haven’t tried to estimate what the high toll could be on the Veterans,” Deason said. “We will analyze that after lanes are open and traffic is using the lanes.”

Electronic signs will warn drivers when the toll is increasing, she said, “providing ample time for drivers to make a decision to choose the express lane or stay in the general-use lane.

“There are complicated metrics that include monitoring traffic volumes and average speed that go into the decision to raise the toll.”

It’s not a toll on top of a toll, Deason said, likening it to the choices people make for cable television. It’s the difference between basic cable and adding premium channels, she said.

Except having the possibility of premium channels does not really eat up 1/4th of all the bandwidth to all users of cable with no chance that there will be more bandwidth for non-premium users to use (as the Veterans will not be expanded anymore – not to mention that pretty much all highway expansion planned is express lanes, which are more accurately called variable rate toll lanes).  And, enjoy the lack of a cap on the “express lane” toll.

In any event, as we said, variable rate toll lanes are not really congestion relief:

“If you want to relieve congestion, you can’t build your way out of it,” Olivieri said. “You need a truly multimodal transit system.”

Deason said Florida’s Turnpike officials agree they can’t necessarily widen their way out of congestion.

“This widening study was done a decade ago, but the department realized you can’t build your way out of congestion by adding more and more lanes, especially on the Veterans because it’s very constricted. We’re not going to expand into Tampa International Airport, so we needed another solution,” Deason said.

The Turnpike people know it, which means FDOT knows it.  Even the Tribune knows it.  So the MPO knows it.  Everyone knows it.  Hell, even the County Commissioners probably know it.  So why is that the only firm plan being bandied about and why does it get so much support?  Because it is a lot easier to let FDOT dictate than to have any vision about what this area should be, and, if we have learned nothing else in the TED/PLC/Go Hillsborough process, we have learned that our local officials love the easy way out, especially if they don’t have to have any vision other than living in 1995.  And that is a major reason we fail to truly compete with the usual suspects.

Economy – More Money, A Least a Little

Going back to the economy, there was interesting news on wages.

Driven by vigorous pay increases in construction and health care jobs, personal income in Florida rose 5.2 percent in 2015 over 2014, outpacing the nation’s income growth rate last year of 4.4 percent.

That is interesting.  Of course, it does not say where these increases were (Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Naples?), nor does it really get into the fact that Florida started from a low base so a .8% greater increase compared to the national number is not that great, but it is better than nothing.

That’s the good news. Florida still lags well behind a majority of states in per capita personal income, a perennial thorn in the state that could take generations to improve. Florida’s per capita personal income in 2015 was $44,101. The national average is $47,669, which means Floridians earn 93 cents for every $1 earned on average nationwide.

That difference ranks Florida No. 28 among all states in personal income.

Florida is already below average in income.  To get to a solid income level would indeed take a long time.  And those numbers do not talk about inequality, which is quite large in many parts of Florida, where numbers are inflated by a relatively small number of very high earners parking their incomes in a low tax state.

Like we said, increased income is good.  Where we are is not really that good.  We still need a lot of work to really get our economy changed.

— More or Less Than it Seems

And let’s just toss out this necessary corrective, which is wrapped up as something good.

Tampa ranks No. 3 as the most cost-friendly big city in which to do business.

Tampa stands out for its low labor costs, including salaries and benefits, KPMG said in a press release about its 2016 Competitive Alternatives study.

The study compares 31 large metro areas — those with populations of 2 million or more — across a range of factors related to doing business, including costs associated with taxes, labor, facilities, transportation and utilities.

It serves as a valuable benchmark for business executives, economic developers and policymakers considering sites for business operations, said Ulrich Schmidt, managing director in KPMG’s global location and expansion services practice, which helps companies that are expanding, relocating or consolidating facilities.

In other words, if you are a CEO or someone with lots of cash, it is great because you don’t have to pay your employees much or provide them too many benefits.  (You can use your savings to drive in the express lanes while your employees are stuck in traffic.)

But if you are just someone with talent, though, what is the appeal?  Why wouldn’t you go where you can make more, even if the cost of living might be slightly higher?  As we have previously discussed, the higher income will more than offset the higher cost of living. (See “Economic Development/Lists of the Week I – It Depends on Who You Ask”) And you will already have urban amenities. You can always move here to retire to the cheap life.

Increasing population is great – but it is not the ultimate measure of success (or Florida would be spoken of like Silicon Valley, and it isn’t).  The fact is that, if you want to really raise incomes and develop a strong economy with true substance that can weather a boom/bust real estate cycle and is truly productive, there needs to be a better sales pitch than “we are cheap/you won’t get paid much.”

Economic Development – More Millennial Studies

And on the theme of attracting (and retaining talent), there was an article in the Tribune with news that the EDC is actually going to survey Millennials.  It started out good with stuff like this:

Metro areas such as Tampa, working to grow jobs and draw the best and the brightest, are putting this group — born between 1982 and 2001 — under a microscope. The Tampa Hillsborough Economic Development Corp. has commissioned a survey of millennial CEOs and workers in competing markets to ask what would persuade them to relocate here for a job or to move their company to Hillsborough County.

“Instead of just talking about millennials, we need to get them to the table. We need to carefully evaluate the gap in what they want and desire and in what we have here in our market,” said Colleen Chappell, EDC chairwoman.

Tampa wants to lure a Fortune 500 corporate headquarters to the downtown area. It also needs to lure the talent pool of the future to help established companies grow and help fast-growing startups continue to expand, she said.

The survey will be conducted in Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Nashville and then randomly across the country, said Michelle Bauer, spokeswoman for the EDC.

“We’ll see how our market stacks up against competing markets and what we are doing right, then where we see new opportunities” to attract young professionals.

“Talent is always a top consideration for companies considering expanding,” Chappell said. “Millennials are the future of our workforce. There are many of them already in the workforce and want to grow in it. There are nearly as many millennials as there are baby boomers, so it’s important for us to understand them, what motivates them, what inspires them. That can’t be done on assumption.”

In the survey, Barry Quarles of Market Enhancement Group in San Diego will conduct 125 telephone interviews with millennial CEOs. Ted Stasney, senior consultant and founder of Research Director on Demand, a Tampa area company, will interview 600 millennials in the Tampa Bay area market and 400 in Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Nashville and randomly through the U.S. to determine what would lure them to a new city.

Not a bad idea.  Asking Millennials what they like is good.  We are not sure why there is the geographical focus on those cities (how about San Diego, where the survey company is based?  How about Denver and Austin?  Why focus on just a few cities in the South?)  But, anyway, it is basically a good idea.

Then the article veered into the typical stuff about why this area is so great rather than sticking to figuring out how to attract and retain talent, with such interesting quotes as this:

“Weather and quality of life. I enjoy the outdoors and a warm climate,” Clarke said. “And talent. Are there other businesses similar to mine that I could potentially gain talent from?”

Clarke’s business focuses on what he calls the workplace for the future, orchestrating all the wiring inside Class A office structures, from cable, to audiovisual wiring to security and Wi-Fi.

“Lastly, I think being in a city that is on its way up and being developed provides more excitement than your traditional Boston, Chicago and New York City where they have peaked,” he said.

And that may work for some, but clearly, there are a whole lot of people interested in older cities on both coasts, as well as newer cities in between (and on the coasts).  Maybe they should be surveyed, too.  And while we like the survey, this makes us wonder a bit:

“From a recruiting standpoint, the EDC is still actively pursuing (Fortune 500) headquarters,” Bauer said. “But we have expanded our focus to include fast-growing companies such as those in the Inc. 5000 list. We’ve been speaking with many high-growth companies that are seriously considering Tampa and Hillsborough as a place to expand or relocate. In fact, one of the main reasons for our conducting the millennial CEO survey is to better understand what the next generation of business leaders is looking for in their ideal relocation or expansion destination so we can refine our approach to recruiting them.”

“You’ve got to ask to really know the answers,” Chappell said.

“There isn’t an investor on our board that isn’t interested in understanding how we can move our market to the next level,” Chappell said. “This data will be an incredibly rich resource for many different leaders.”

In their younger years, not all talent is made of “leaders” (and not all leaders have talent).  Are you interested in just recruiting companies/CEOs or are you interested in attracting and retaining talent?  If it is the latter, you do not focus on Millennial CEO’s, you focus on talent (Millennial and otherwise) generally.  And you also ask people who grew up here why they left.  If you do not do that, you are missing a major component of what the area needs to do.

The fact is that we really need to see the area for what it is, good things, but also warts.  Recruiting organizations often have a hard time being up front about the warts.  Sometimes they see the issue but do not want to publicize it (which we understand, to some degree) and sometimes they just ignore it (which is more the Tampa Bay way).  Every now and then they really get to the mean of the matter.

Unless the survey is truly comprehensive and not just focused on attracting a few young CEO’s with a few jobs as trophies, it will be a waste.  It is a decent idea.  Hopefully, it will be properly executed.

Downtown – More Straz

About a year or so ago, the Straz put out some preliminary drawing about changing the complex’s waterfront.   This week they updated that:

The David A. Straz Jr. Center for the Performing Arts has long been Tampa’s showplace for music and theater, but now it wants to be the city’s living room, too.

“We want it to be a gathering place,” Straz president Judith Lisi said Tuesday, and not just for patrons with theater tickets.

To make that happen, the center is putting together a master plan for a range of new projects and enhancements designed to bring people to the Straz campus on the Hillsborough River.

Estimated cost: $65 million to $100 million. Fundraising would start after a feasibility study is done this year, and construction wouldn’t begin until money is in hand.

Before we get into the drawings, just note that 1) they still haven’t even done a feasibility study and 2) they don’t have any money yet.  In other words, it is still just a concept and can change.

That being said, the Straz will never be Tampa’s or downtown’s living room.  If anything, Curtis Hixon Park is the living room.  Nevertheless, to the drawings and models:

From the Tribune – click on picture for article

From the Tribune – click on picture for website

From the Tribune – click on picture for website

From the Tribune – click on picture for website

So, first, the good.  The Straz looks a bit outdated and does not really address the river or downtown.  This project looks to change that.  And that is good.  Some of the ideas look very nice.  We actually like the concept of an event space (the oblong blob near the bridge), though we liked the first angular iteration more than the glass egg concept.

The biggest two problems we see are these: 1) retrofitting a curvy, glass based feature onto an angular, essentially rectangular concrete building (the Straz) is going to be a difficult task (and note that the existing building is a lot darker than how it is portrayed in the drawings.).  It is much more likely to not look too good (even if the feature in and of itself is cool), even clumsy, than to blend nicely. And 2) the project basically cuts the river off at the bridge and behind the Straz.  The main building of the Straz is pushed essentially to the river front, which does not really open the river to anyone not at the Straz, and the event building is jammed next to the bridge in a really awkward position.  That does not open the river to downtown to the public.  In fact, it cuts the river off far more than the tower project to which there were objections (not to mention blocking views for a number of floors of that building). We are not going to get into that odd sculpture in the river because, frankly, that is truly a hit or miss project and we have not seen enough to know if it could work.  However, the wavy Riverwalk under the bridge is not user-friendly.  (You would think that Tampa would have learned from the previous sidewalks in the old Cutis Hixon Park that bizarrely shaped walkways are not popular over time.)

We are not opposed to fixing up the Straz and making the river more inviting.  We think that is great.  However, what is proposed seems to have a much bigger chance of looking bad and not actually opening up the river.

Downtown – More AER

Speaking of the apartment building proposed near the Straz:

A residential tower in the works for years could break ground in the coming months, its developer said Tuesday.

* * *

Granvil Tracy, president of American Land Ventures, said Tuesday that he anticipates the tower will break ground in late summer.

“The market’s responded favorably, and we have financing interest,” Tracy said.

That is not very firm, but that is what we have.  If it does break ground (and the Channel Club ever does start construction) there would be five major apartment buildings going up at once (though one on Harbour Island will top out soon).  That would be nice.

Downtown/Hyde Park – More Change at Altis Grand

There was news that the developer of the Altis Grand, which had been previously rejected, has a new design.  We welcome that because we are not at all opposed to developing the area around the Oxford Exchange.  So what are they now proposing?

Altman has come back to the city with a significantly different proposal — one with nearly double the retail space that is more intertwined with the existing streetscape. The new building has 9,750 square feet of retail space (compared to 5,000 square feet) and slightly more units (the first version had 296 units). It will be built with 100 percent reinforced concrete, with residential buildings that vary between 6 and 8 stories.

They are also saving a tree and some other things.

This is a rendering:

From the Business Journal – click on picture for website

Which is kind of a mish-mash, though that may have more to do with the artist trying to make the building look tall and imposing, as renderings often do.  What is does not show is the most egregious thing about the previous design, in our opinion: the garage.  This is the new site plan from URBN Tampa Bay:

From URBN Tampa Bay – click on picture for Facebook page

It seems that the apartment portion of the building may be as tall as the garage but the garage will still peek out on the sides, which is not something we really like (though it is not entirely clear).  We appreciate that they tried to make the design better, and it probably is.  Remember, even this design, which is not awesome, is better than what the developer wanted to build before the City said “no.”

While we are not sure about the garage in this proposal, one thing we have to point out is that, when you take the Related groups garage-dominant design (which should not have been allowed), the City has to be very careful (like the City is going to be careful) or this area, which has great potential, will be dominated by views of garages rather than an attractive urban streetscape for decades to come.  And it will be all due to the City not having any standards because why should developers care if the City itself doesn’t?

Downtown/Channel District – More Land for the Lighting Owner

In what has to rank as one of the least surprising land deals in Tampa history:

After six months of negotiations, the Tampa Hillsborough Expressway Authority agreed Monday to sell about two-thirds of an acre of land to Tampa Bay Lightning owner Jeff Vinik and Cascade Investment for $2.75 million.

The land consists of the S-shaped curve of E Brorein Street north of Channelside Drive. The Vinik-Cascade group plans to tear up the road as part of a general street realignment in its planned $2 billion redevelopment near Amalie Arena.

The sales price is just under the appraised value of $2.79 million. The buyer is a Vinik-related company, Brorein Partners LLC.

Like anyone was going to say no.  The only surprise is that it took so long to save (or lose, depending on your position) $40K.

The sale, approved unanimously by the expressway authority’s board, won’t go through until the city of Tampa works with the developer to ensure that E Cumberland Avenue, which will be extended west to Brorein and east to S Meridian Avenue, will serve as that new feeder road.

“There’s a great deal that’s going to have to happen between the time the board approves this contract and the actual transaction itself,” said Patrick Maguire, the expressway authority’s general counsel. “There’s a lot of moving parts.”

For example, the sale also is contingent on the developer and the city creating a plan to make sure that the movement of traffic to and from the Selmon is maintained during construction. That has to happen, authority executive director Joseph Waggoner said, before “a shovel goes into the ground.”

Sure.  Not that it really matters in the greater scheme of things.  We pretty much expect local officials to bend over backwards for anything the Lightning owner asks for because 1) he hired a bunch of very connected people and 2) can they afford to get in the way?  Luckily, the Lighting owner has been very rational and intelligent so far.

Port – More Comings and Goings

The Port’s big cranes are almost here.The long-awaited arrival of two enormous gantry cranes capable of reaching across today’s wider freighters are expected to duck under the Sunshine Skyway at dawn Friday, headed for Port Tampa Bay.

The $24 million mega cranes, constructed in China, will allow the port to handle the wider loads on new container ships traveling to and from Tampa.

More cargo coming in on these larger container ships is expected to translate into more jobs for terminal operators, laborers, crane operators, truck drivers and logistic services.

“Getting the delivery of the Post Panamax cranes (for wider ships built in conjunction with the recent expansion of the Panama Canal) on Friday has huge significance for Port Tampa Bay,” said Hillsborough County Commissioner Sandy Murman, who sits on the Tampa Port Authority Board. “First and foremost is the picture worth a thousand words upon the arrival that represents the opportunity for the port to grow exponentially by doubling the size of the ships we can handle at the port. More ships means more goods for export or import. That equals jobs and economic growth for our region.

“Second, we will be the only port along the west coast with these gigantic cranes which is huge for our region,” Murman said. She said it took a big effort by Gov. Rick Scott, the legislature and the Florida Department of Transportation to make the purchase possible.

Along the west coast of what?  Florida? How many ports are along the west coast of Florida?  Tampa (Bay) and Manatee.  So are we back to that little feud?

Anyway, the cranes are a good thing – if the ships that need them can fit under the Skyway and through the channel.  In any event, it is good that have more capacity.  And there is much room for growth in container business, which really says more about how little we do now.

Speaking of container companies:

Shipping container company, Hapag-Lloyd America LLC, along with Hapag-Lloyd USA Inc. said it is closing its Tampa office resulting in a permanent loss of 55 jobs.

In a letter to Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn and Florida’s Department of Economic Opportunity, a manager at Hapag-Lloyd wrote that the company expects to close its facilities at 410 E. Jackson St. in Tampa.

We do not know how many containers they shipped out of Tampa because:

Hapag-Lloyd was ranked No. 2 among TBBJ‘s top defense contractors in Tampa Bay in 2014 based on contracts from the Department of Defense in 2013. The company didn’t respond by deadline to requests by phone and email for comment.

But this is the explanation of the closing:

In an effort to become a market leader in Latin America, Hapag-Lloyd took over the container shipping business of Chilean shipping company CSAV in December 2014.

Following the merger, “we totally restructured,” Horn said. Tampa had been serving as Hapag-Lloyd’s link to the Caribbean but those operational positions have been moved to the company’s Miami office, Horn said. The company’s U.S. flag business went to its regional North America headquarters in Piscataway, New Jersey, which also got some trade management jobs, some of which went to the firm’s Houston office, Horn said. Some 65 employees took relocation offers, 10 resigned and the remaining 55 were laid off.

We could go on about what that means, but suffice it to say that it would have been much better if they had stayed here.

Transportation – More PTC Dancing

The PTC is back in the sting/protectionists/cartel loving racket.

TAMPA (FOX 13) – Newly laid off worker Francisco Franco is driving for Lyft while he applies for new jobs.

“I recently lost my main job, and I do something to feed my family.”

His phone buzzed Friday morning for a pickup at the Brandon Mall. It was really the Public Transportation Commission requesting a ride.

He was falling for a sting.

“I say to the police, ‘Sir, I lost my job,’ he said, ‘Sorry.'”

The PTC handed Franco three tickets for not having the same insurance and licenses as taxi drivers. He will submit the $700 in tickets to Lyft for reimbursement.

“Take care of real problems,” Franco said. “Don’t take care of people who make money who are trying to support families.”

The PTC should be proud that they are making sure that the consumers do not get the service they want.

“We want the public to have the services they are demanding, but we want it to be fair and safe,” said Public Transportation Commissioner Victor Crist.

The PTC, and taxi companies, say it’s not fair of safe for Uber and Lyft drivers to pick people up without being fingerprinted or background checked against international databses.

Watch for the weasel word – “fair.”  Fair to whom? Fair under what definition?  Well, it seems this is what he means:

Crist said his proposal will require driver background checks and require that they have personal insurance policies that cover damages to property and individuals if they have accidents while working. He said he’ll present it at a PTC workshop today. .

Uber has objected to such requirements, saying it maintains commercial insurance covering its drivers and does background checks; PTC officials say those safeguards are insufficient.

Crist said what’s new in his offer is that it would allow the companies to perform the checks themselves and certify the results to the PTC in affidavits, subject to occasional audits, without publicly listing their drivers. He said his proposal will also include de-regulation of cab companies to allow for fair competition.

We are not sure if the PTC will adopt this, but it seems better than what has been the previous PTC position, though, admittedly without details, that seems a bigger insurance requirement than the state says was needed.  Frankly, without details and consideration of this plan, it is hard to judge. But, it all goes to show once again, the PTC could have fixed this a long time ago. Or, like every other county, Hillsborough could have just not had a PTC.

Public Art/Built Environment – More Murals

There was an article in the Times about another mural in Tampa, this time at Berns.  Now there are murals on the Poe garage, other buildings downtown, Grand Central on Kennedy, and other assorted places.    We are by no means opposed to public art.  And we are not opposed to murals.  However, you have to start to wonder with all the murals, how bad is the building design in this area?  How many large, blank walls in very public places do we really have? How ugly is the built environment that it has to be painted over and hidden by murals?

Some murals are fine.  A lot of murals is just a sign that your architecture is bad.  And that does not even get to the subjective nature of the art itself.

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One Comment leave one →
  1. Sharon Calvert permalink
    April 1, 2016 7:14 PM

    Regarding the Rockefeller Foundation Millennial study cited in the Tribune – did you actually read the study? Unscientific, a push poll and demographically biased. Tribune should be ashamed but they never are.

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